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MBS Live Morning: EU Bond Drama Making US Bonds More Nervous Bigger Events Approach

MBS Live Morning: EU Bond Drama Making US Bonds More Nervous Bigger Events Approach

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MBS Live Morning: EU Bond Drama Making US Bonds More Nervous Bigger Events Approach
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MBS Live Morning: EU Bond Drama Making US Bonds More Nervous Bigger Events Approach
MBS Live Morning: EU Bond Drama Making US Bonds More Nervous Bigger Events Approach
MBS Live Morning: EU Bond Drama Making US Bonds More Nervous Bigger Events Approach
MBS Live Morning: EU Bond Drama Making US Bonds More Nervous Bigger Events Approach
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
After a bumpy start to the week on Monday, the bond market is still trying to define a sideways range that serves as a waiting room where traders will eventually be given a long-term prognosis for the market.ย  The critical events that determine that prognosis are yet to come.ย  They include inflation data and the associated response of various central banks.ย  At least those are the two biggest variables.ย  In the meantime, things like Treasury auctions and non-inflation-related economic report...
After a bumpy start to the week on Monday, the bond market is still trying to define a sideways range that serves as a waiting room where traders will eventually be given a long-term prognosis for the market.ย  The critical events that determine that prognosis are yet to come.ย  They include inflation data and the associated response of various central banks.ย  At least those are the two biggest variables.ย  In the meantime, things like Treasury auctions and non-inflation-related economic report...
MBS Live Morning: Are Bonds Nervous to Hear What They Already Know?
MBS Live Morning: Are Bonds Nervous to Hear What They Already Know?
MBS Live Morning: Are Bonds Nervous to Hear What They Already Know?
MBS Live Morning: Are Bonds Nervous to Hear What They Already Know?
News & media website News & media website | 2 years ago
The centerpiece of today's event calendar is a panel discussion on the global economy hosted by the IMF.ย  Both Powell and ECB President Lagarde are on the short list of speakers.ย  With almost every recent Fed speaker mentioning the possibility--if not likelihood--of a 50bp hike in May (and several who bluntly said the 50bp hike could coincide with the announcement of balance sheet normalization), this is indeed a logical opportunity for Powell to effectively release the next FOMC statement 2 w...
The centerpiece of today's event calendar is a panel discussion on the global economy hosted by the IMF.ย  Both Powell and ECB President Lagarde are on the short list of speakers.ย  With almost every recent Fed speaker mentioning the possibility--if not likelihood--of a 50bp hike in May (and several who bluntly said the 50bp hike could coincide with the announcement of balance sheet normalization), this is indeed a logical opportunity for Powell to effectively release the next FOMC statement 2 w...
MBS Live Morning: Some Pressure From ECB, But US Bonds Outperforming
MBS Live Morning: Some Pressure From ECB, But US Bonds Outperforming
MBS Live Morning: Some Pressure From ECB, But US Bonds Outperforming
MBS Live Morning: Some Pressure From ECB, But US Bonds Outperforming
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
As has been the case for most of the past 2 weeks, European bonds have been arguing for a move to higher rates and US bonds have been reluctantly following.ย  Today's installment focuses on the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement, which was largely as expected, but with an upgrade to the inflation outlook.ย  Traders took this to mean faster rate hikes in the future, but again, it's a bigger issue for European markets with German Bunds roughly 7bps higher while US 10yr yieldsย made it back t...
As has been the case for most of the past 2 weeks, European bonds have been arguing for a move to higher rates and US bonds have been reluctantly following.ย  Today's installment focuses on the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement, which was largely as expected, but with an upgrade to the inflation outlook.ย  Traders took this to mean faster rate hikes in the future, but again, it's a bigger issue for European markets with German Bunds roughly 7bps higher while US 10yr yieldsย made it back t...
MBS Live Morning: Big, Ugly Morning For Bonds (And Stocks)
MBS Live Morning: Big, Ugly Morning For Bonds (And Stocks)
MBS Live Morning: Big, Ugly Morning For Bonds (And Stocks)
MBS Live Morning: Big, Ugly Morning For Bonds (And Stocks)
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Solid Fed day and solid rally in response yesterday...ย  Now today, it's not just a complete 180ยฐ, but a 180ยฐ plus more insult to injury as yields surge to new long-term highs.ย  Money has flooded out of both sides of the market prompting discussions about "risk-parity" trades.ย  For bonds' part, there are definitely steepening trades (selling longer-term bonds more than shorter-term bonds) driving some of the weakness.ย  Corporate bond issuance isn't helping.ย  Nor is the technical break of t...
Solid Fed day and solid rally in response yesterday...ย  Now today, it's not just a complete 180ยฐ, but a 180ยฐ plus more insult to injury as yields surge to new long-term highs.ย  Money has flooded out of both sides of the market prompting discussions about "risk-parity" trades.ย  For bonds' part, there are definitely steepening trades (selling longer-term bonds more than shorter-term bonds) driving some of the weakness.ย  Corporate bond issuance isn't helping.ย  Nor is the technical break of t...
MBS Live Morning: Good Start For Bonds After Cooler CPI
MBS Live Morning: Good Start For Bonds After Cooler CPI
MBS Live Morning: Good Start For Bonds After Cooler CPI
MBS Live Morning: Good Start For Bonds After Cooler CPI
News & media website News & media website | 2 years ago
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) is arguably the most important data point for interest rates in a world where inflation is at the highest levels since the 80s and the Fed is not currently worried about the labor market (otherwise, NFP would still command more respect).ย  Markets were concerned that this morning's release could be even hotter than forecasts suggested (granted, most of the year-over-year increase at the core level was expected due to "base effects").ย  As it happened, monthly CPI...
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) is arguably the most important data point for interest rates in a world where inflation is at the highest levels since the 80s and the Fed is not currently worried about the labor market (otherwise, NFP would still command more respect).ย  Markets were concerned that this morning's release could be even hotter than forecasts suggested (granted, most of the year-over-year increase at the core level was expected due to "base effects").ย  As it happened, monthly CPI...
MBS Live Morning: Stronger Start for Bonds on Stock Market Weakness
MBS Live Morning: Stronger Start for Bonds on Stock Market Weakness
MBS Live Morning: Stronger Start for Bonds on Stock Market Weakness
MBS Live Morning: Stronger Start for Bonds on Stock Market Weakness
News & media website News & media website | 2 years ago
Global equities indices fell sharply at various opening bells (and the closing bell too, as far as Asia was concerned).ย  This was less of a concern for the likes of the Nikkei, but a defining theme for Chinese equities markets as covid/lockdown/slowdown issues persist.ย  ย One might assume that Chinese lockdowns would have enough of an impact on inflation expectations to put upward pressure on bond yields, but that risk seems to be more than offset at the moment by a drop in fuel prices.ย  In...
Global equities indices fell sharply at various opening bells (and the closing bell too, as far as Asia was concerned).ย  This was less of a concern for the likes of the Nikkei, but a defining theme for Chinese equities markets as covid/lockdown/slowdown issues persist.ย  ย One might assume that Chinese lockdowns would have enough of an impact on inflation expectations to put upward pressure on bond yields, but that risk seems to be more than offset at the moment by a drop in fuel prices.ย  In...
MBS Live Morning: Liquidity Issues Making MBS Prices a Moving Target
MBS Live Morning: Liquidity Issues Making MBS Prices a Moving Target
MBS Live Morning: Liquidity Issues Making MBS Prices a Moving Target
MBS Live Morning: Liquidity Issues Making MBS Prices a Moving Target
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Depending on when you looked this morning, MBS prices may have been red or green, and the gap between any two quotes was rather large (a quarter of a point or more at times).ย  This has to do with the ongoing deterioration of liquidity in the MBS market.ย  The following chart explains this best.ย  The green line is what buyers are willing to pay and the orange line is where sellers are willing to sell.ย  The blue lean measures the gap between the two.ย  The higher the blue line, the worse the ...
Depending on when you looked this morning, MBS prices may have been red or green, and the gap between any two quotes was rather large (a quarter of a point or more at times).ย  This has to do with the ongoing deterioration of liquidity in the MBS market.ย  The following chart explains this best.ย  The green line is what buyers are willing to pay and the orange line is where sellers are willing to sell.ย  The blue lean measures the gap between the two.ย  The higher the blue line, the worse the ...
MBS Live Morning: Is The Bond Market Ready For The Big Bounce?
MBS Live Morning: Is The Bond Market Ready For The Big Bounce?
MBS Live Morning: Is The Bond Market Ready For The Big Bounce?
MBS Live Morning: Is The Bond Market Ready For The Big Bounce?
mortgagenewsdaily mortgagenewsdaily | 2 years ago
This is the "to be or not to be" question for the bond market right now.ย  Said differently, have we suffered sufficient slings and arrowsย for investors to begin to believe that bonds have priced-in what hikes may come? While this inevitable correction is devoutly to be wished, nailing the timing and the duration of what may be a series of multiple corrections and false starts continues to be tantamount to catching the proverbial bare bodkin.ย  Have we seen enough weakness by standards of the p...
This is the "to be or not to be" question for the bond market right now.ย  Said differently, have we suffered sufficient slings and arrowsย for investors to begin to believe that bonds have priced-in what hikes may come? While this inevitable correction is devoutly to be wished, nailing the timing and the duration of what may be a series of multiple corrections and false starts continues to be tantamount to catching the proverbial bare bodkin.ย  Have we seen enough weakness by standards of the p...
MBS Live Morning: Another Stock Swoon Keeping Bonds in Check
MBS Live Morning: Another Stock Swoon Keeping Bonds in Check
MBS Live Morning: Another Stock Swoon Keeping Bonds in Check
MBS Live Morning: Another Stock Swoon Keeping Bonds in Check
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
The entire week has been dominated by a close correlation between stock prices and bonds yields.ย  This has been especially noticeable after 9:30am ET on any given day (the NYSE opening bell, when more liquidity and volume hit the market), but even outside those hours, there's been enough correlation that it makes sense to keep an eye on stocks at the moment.ย  It also serves as a reminder that this week's bond rally may be more fragile than it seems, depending on what the stock market does next...
The entire week has been dominated by a close correlation between stock prices and bonds yields.ย  This has been especially noticeable after 9:30am ET on any given day (the NYSE opening bell, when more liquidity and volume hit the market), but even outside those hours, there's been enough correlation that it makes sense to keep an eye on stocks at the moment.ย  It also serves as a reminder that this week's bond rally may be more fragile than it seems, depending on what the stock market does next...
MBS Live Morning: Bonds Dressed Up But Nowhere To Go Just Yet
MBS Live Morning: Bonds Dressed Up But Nowhere To Go Just Yet
MBS Live Morning: Bonds Dressed Up But Nowhere To Go Just Yet
MBS Live Morning: Bonds Dressed Up But Nowhere To Go Just Yet
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
If only the bond rally of the past 2 days had begun next Monday...ย  Due to its "one week early" timing, the result has been a technical correction that matches the most recent correction in terms of scope (i.e. yields dropped as much over the past 2 days as they did back at the end of March), but one that has a hard time making a case for additional gains until the Fed confirms (or microscopically softens) the threats made in the latest round of speeches.ย  Between now and then, there is a Tr...
If only the bond rally of the past 2 days had begun next Monday...ย  Due to its "one week early" timing, the result has been a technical correction that matches the most recent correction in terms of scope (i.e. yields dropped as much over the past 2 days as they did back at the end of March), but one that has a hard time making a case for additional gains until the Fed confirms (or microscopically softens) the threats made in the latest round of speeches.ย  Between now and then, there is a Tr...