Remember way back in 2010, when the Associated Press declared that “the era of record-low mortgage rates is over”?

Or a few years later in 2013 when 4% mortgage rates were widely described as “soaring”?

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Mortgage rates have been a frequent topic of discussion on these pages over the years since they have such a large impact on the housing market. Here are a few of our headlines over the years…

April 2012: Will Higher Interest Rates Kill the Housing Market?

September 2015: Affordability Will Be Destroyed if Interest Rates Increase

September 2020: Plunging mortgage rates held off a Seattle home price crash

Ten years ago I said that “eventually rates will climb back up above six percent” but that I didn’t expect it to happen “for at least another four years.” Even the timeline of that prediction was far too short, but to be fair it was in a post titled People Stink at Predicting Interest Rates and people includes this guy.

In my opinion, the absurdly low mortgage rates of the past 10+ years have basically held the housing market in a perpetual state of artificial demand inflation. The Federal Reserve has been the drug dealer, continuallly supplying the market with cocaine in increasingly higher doses while we all just kept coming back for more every time we saw the slightest hint that we may be coming down off that high.

But now, after more than a decade of rates under 5%, we’re finally going to see how a more “normal” mortgage rate will impact the housing market. It’s finally time to detox, and we don’t get to come down easy—we’re going cold turkey.

To try to get some idea of what this might look like, it may be informative to review the 2010 post Do Rising Interest Rates Lead to Falling Home Prices? Here’s the tl;dr – Yes, there have been times when a spike in mortgage rates led to a decline in inflation-adjusted home prices. Most notably the period between 1979 and 1985, when rates shot up nine points and inflation-adjusted home prices fell 20%.

A lot of factors are different now than they were in the early ’80s. For one thing, home prices going into that period were not obscenely inflated the way they are now. Our current situation is also very different from 2008, when far too many homebuyers were leveraged to the hilt with liar loans and interest-only mortgages that they could only “afford” if prices kept rising in perpetuity. It’s impossible to predict exactly what the coming housing recession will look like, but I am fairly confident that real home prices will not be able to remain at the astronomical heights they have climbed to over the past few years with mortgage rates back above 6%.

We are already seeing a lot of weeping & gnashing of teeth about “high mortgage rates” and the Fed “killing the housing market” but in my opinion the mistake was holding rates so absurdly low for so absurdly long. Mortgage rates eventually going back to the 6-8% range was inevitable.

In closing, here is a mortgage rates haiku:

Seems it may be time to finally pay the price for keeping rates low.

If you’re a Seattle Bubble Member, the full data for these charts and more are uploaded to the members-only data repository.

Want to join a conversation about this or other local real estate topics? We’re on Twitter at @SeattleBubble.

Since we’ve been gone for so long, I thought I’d start back up with somewhat of an overview post. Let’s just take a look at what’s going on in the Seattle-area (King County) housing market recently.

One of the biggest topics on everybody’s mind lately is home prices, so let’s start there. The median price of single-family homes sold in King County in February was $857,750, up 14% from a year earlier.

Since we’ve been gone for so long, I thought I’d start back up with somewhat of an overview post. Let’s just take a look at what’s going on in the Seattle-area (King County) housing market recently.

One of the biggest topics on everybody’s mind lately is home prices, so let’s start there. The median price of single-family homes sold in King County in February was $857,750, up 14% from a year earlier.

As you can see, prices are down slightly from the all-time high of $871,000 back in July, but over the past few years they have really shot up at a ridiculously fast pace. That said, home affordability here isn’t nearly as awful as you might expect. Remember that an affordability index of 100 means that the median household income is spending 30% of their income on the monthly mortgage payment for the median-priced home. An index below 100 means it would take more than 30% of income, above 100 means it would take less than 30%.

Over the past five years, home prices in King County have shot up around 50%, and incomes are up 38%. Rising incomes weren’t enough to keep the affordability index from nosediving in 2017 and early 2018. However, mortgage rates falling from a recent high of 4.87% in November 2018 to an all-time low of 2.68% in December 2020 pushed the affordability index back up above the “affordable” level of 100… until rates started to shoot back up over the past couple of months, that is.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on this chart as rates are expected to continue to climb throughout 2022.

The other big issue for the housing market right now is supply. I’ll be diving deeper into this topic in the coming weeks, looking at actual homebuilding vs. population, but for now let’s just look at the for-sale market. Here’s our chart of months of supply for single-family homes in King County.

It’s interesting to note that months of supply was creeping up toward a more balanced market in 2018, around the same time that the affordability index was nearing an all-time low. I’m sure this is no coincidence. Right now though, we’ve got close to the lowest supply ever.

Last month held some possibly good news for buyers looking for more choices and less competition, as new listings were higher than they’ve been in February five of the past six years, pending sales were at their lowest point in the past three years, and closed sales hit an 8-year low.

That said, we’re a long way from getting back to anything even remotely resembling “normal” when it comes to how many homes are on the market. End-of-month inventory is still close enough to zero that it’s nearly a rounding error.

So what does it all mean? Well, in short, this market sucks for anyone trying to buy a home right now.

As mentioned earlier, I’m planning to dig deeper into the larger issue of housing supply, and I’m also working on a post with my thoughts on whether we’re currently in “housing bubble 2.0” and what might happen over the next few years.

If you’re a Seattle Bubble Member, the full data for all of these charts and more are uploaded to the members-only data repository.

Want to join a conversation about this or other local real estate topics? We’re on Twitter at @SeattleBubble.

An editorial by Christopher Kirk in the Seattle Times yesterday was so stupid I had no choice but to finally come back here and respond.

Here's the link: Statewide rezoning of single-family neighborhoods is a terrible idea

Now, before we start it's worth noting that this piece is described as a "Special to The Times" and the author is not a journalist. He's not an economist,

An editorial by Christopher Kirk in the Seattle Times yesterday was so stupid I had no choice but to finally come back here and respond.

Here's the link: Statewide rezoning of single-family neighborhoods is a terrible idea

Now, before we start it's worth noting that this piece is described as a "Special to The Times" and the author is not a journalist. He's not an economist, either. He's also not an urban planner, and as you'll see he's obviously not a historian. He's an architect whose primary accomplishments listed on his bio attached to the piece are having "served on public historic preservation and design review boards."

So with that context, let's get into it…

The post Eliminating single-family zoning is a good idea, and Christopher Kirk’s Seattle Times editorial is a steaming pile of garbage appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Let's take a look at our stats for the local regions outside of the King/Snohomish core. Here's your October update to our "Around the Sound" statistics for Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties…

The post Around the Sound: Still a dismal market for buyers everywhere appeared first on Seattle

Let's take a look at our stats for the local regions outside of the King/Snohomish core. Here's your October update to our "Around the Sound" statistics for Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties…

The post Around the Sound: Still a dismal market for buyers everywhere appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

October market data from the NWMLS is available. Here's what happened last month in the Seattle-area housing market: Home prices and pending sales fell slightly, but closed sales rose to the highest level ever seen during an October—over 3,000 sales.

The post NWMLS: Strongest October ever for closed sales appeared first on Seattle

October market data from the NWMLS is available. Here's what happened last month in the Seattle-area housing market: Home prices and pending sales fell slightly, but closed sales rose to the highest level ever seen during an October—over 3,000 sales.

The post NWMLS: Strongest October ever for closed sales appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The "affordable" home price has shot up from $530,359 in November 2018 to an all-time high of $706,800 as of August. The current "affordable" home price in King County would have a monthly payment of $2,365…

The post “Affordable” home price shot up 33% in less than two years appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The article provides an analysis of the affordability index for various counties in the Puget Sound area in August 2020. The affordability index is a measure that compares the monthly costs of a median-priced home to the median household income in the area. An index level above 100 indicates that the monthly payment on a median-priced home costs less than 30% of the median household income, while an index below 100 means that the monthly payment is over 30% of the median income.

According to the data

The article provides an analysis of the affordability index for various counties in the Puget Sound area in August 2020. The affordability index is a measure that compares the monthly costs of a median-priced home to the median household income in the area. An index level above 100 indicates that the monthly payment on a median-priced home costs less than 30% of the median household income, while an index below 100 means that the monthly payment is over 30% of the median income.

According to the data presented in the article, the affordability index for the Puget Sound area in August 2020 is 95.1, which is somewhat lower than the historical average of 107.6 from 1993 to 2002. The article also notes that 69 percent of the 331 months on record back through 1993 have had a higher affordability index than what was recorded in August 2020. However, the article also points out that if interest rates were at a more historically sane level of 6 percent, the affordability index would be 66.4, which is worse than every other month on record except July 2007, the absolute peak of the previous housing bubble.

To further understand the changes in the affordability index, the article breaks it down into its individual components: home prices, incomes, and interest rates. The article states that in 2017 and early 2018, home prices in the area rapidly increased, causing a significant decrease in the affordability index. However, by January 2019, home prices had fallen by 16 percent. The article suggests that the sudden drop in mortgage rates in 2018, which fell from 4.87% in November 2018 to 2.94% in August, may have helped slow down the decline in home prices and improve the affordability index.

The article also provides charts and data for the affordability index in King County, Snohomish County, Pierce County and outer Puget Sound counties. In King County, the affordability index currently sits at 95.1. Snohomish County and Pierce County have also seen similar improvements in affordability, driven almost entirely by declining mortgage rates. The affordability index in Snohomish County currently sits at 120.8, while Pierce County is at 125.0. Both are at levels comparable to 2008 or 2009. The article also provides a bonus chart for the affordability index in the outlying Puget Sound counties.

Lastly, the article provides a formula and calculator to determine whether a home purchase is affordable based on the affordability index measure. The formula for the affordability index is based on three factors: median single-family home price, 30-year monthly mortgage rates, and estimated median household income. The historic standard for "affordable" housing is that monthly costs do not exceed 30% of one's income.

Let's say the median single-family home price in a certain county is $500,000, the 30-year monthly mortgage rate is 3% and the estimated median household income is $75,000. Using the affordability index formula:

Affordability Index = ($500,000 x 3.0%) / ($75,000 / 12)

The monthly mortgage payment on the median-priced home would be $1,250, which is 30% of the median household income of $75,000. Therefore, the affordability index for this scenario would be 100.

According to the standard, this home purchase would be considered affordable because the monthly costs do not exceed 30% of the median household income. However, if the interest rate was higher, for example 4% the calculation would be: Affordability Index = ($500,000 x 4.0%) / ($75,000 / 12)

The monthly mortgage payment on the median-priced home would be $1,666, which is around 22% of the median household income of $75,000. Therefore, the affordability index for this scenario would be around 133.

It's worth noting that this is a simplified example and that there are many other factors that can affect the affordability of a home purchase, such as down payment, closing costs, and property taxes. Additionally, this example doesn't take into account the historical average of the area or the other factors that can affect the affordability index.

August market stats were published by the NWMLS on Friday before the holiday weekend. The King County median price of single-family homes rose over 10 percent year-over-year for the first time since May of 2018. Inventory is way down from a year ago, and pending sales climbed to an all-time record high…

The post NWMLS: Pending sales hit an all-time high in August

August market stats were published by the NWMLS on Friday before the holiday weekend. The King County median price of single-family homes rose over 10 percent year-over-year for the first time since May of 2018. Inventory is way down from a year ago, and pending sales climbed to an all-time record high…

The post NWMLS: Pending sales hit an all-time high in August appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Okay, let's get back to the data. It's about time. Okay, it's way past time. Anyway, whatever. Here's some data. Since it's been a while, let's start with a few high-level stats from around the Puget Sound…

The post The pandemic has sparked a massive seller’s market and big price spikes around Seattle appeared first on

Okay, let's get back to the data. It's about time. Okay, it's way past time. Anyway, whatever. Here's some data. Since it's been a while, let's start with a few high-level stats from around the Puget Sound…

The post The pandemic has sparked a massive seller’s market and big price spikes around Seattle appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let's take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday's preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here's a quick look at their press release…

The post NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices

The NWMLS published their August stats yesterday, so let's take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market.

As we mentioned in yesterday's preview post, the biggest story is a sudden, renewed shortage of inventory.

Before we get into our detailed monthly stats, here's a quick look at their press release…

The post NWMLS: New listings dry up as home prices plateau appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

NWMLS stats for August are due any day now, probably later today, but let's have a look at our "early" view on the August housing market stats for the Seattle area.

The biggest news: Active listings appear to be down considerably from a year ago. This is a big flip from earlier this year, when listings were way up, and definitely not great news for buyers.

The post August Stats

NWMLS stats for August are due any day now, probably later today, but let's have a look at our "early" view on the August housing market stats for the Seattle area.

The biggest news: Active listings appear to be down considerably from a year ago. This is a big flip from earlier this year, when listings were way up, and definitely not great news for buyers.

The post August Stats Preview: Where did the listings go? appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

I promised an updated look at June data for the outlying counties, so let's have a look at that. Here's the latest update to our "Around the Sound" statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

King County is the only place where prices are declining, and it also has the largest increase in active listings compared to a year ago. On the flip side, pending sales were up the most in King County, and it had one of the smallest declines in closed sales

I promised an updated look at June data for the outlying counties, so let's have a look at that. Here's the latest update to our "Around the Sound" statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

King County is the only place where prices are declining, and it also has the largest increase in active listings compared to a year ago. On the flip side, pending sales were up the most in King County, and it had one of the smallest declines in closed sales (sales rose in Skagit though). In most of the other Puget Sound counties, sales are declining, and listings are either falling or not increasing by much, and prices are rising.

The post Around the Sound: King County alone in price drops and big inventory gains appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The NWMLS just published their June stats, so let's take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market. The King County median price of single-family homes was down year-over-year again in June, the fourth month in a row of declines. Inventory was up from a year ago again, but the as we mentioned in the preview post earlier this morning, the rate of increase is rapidly declining from the all-time high set in December. Closed sales were down a bit from a year earlier, while pending sales were up

The NWMLS just published their June stats, so let's take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market. The King County median price of single-family homes was down year-over-year again in June, the fourth month in a row of declines. Inventory was up from a year ago again, but the as we mentioned in the preview post earlier this morning, the rate of increase is rapidly declining from the all-time high set in December. Closed sales were down a bit from a year earlier, while pending sales were up slightly.

The post NWMLS: Home prices and sales stagnated in June appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

This is the last post in today's data catch-up marathon. I'll also update a few more of the spreadsheets for members, and if the NWMLS posts their June data today I'll try to get that up as well.

For now, let's have a look at our "early" view on June stats.

In summary: Listings are still up from a year ago, but not by as much as they have been. Sales are down, but only just a bit.

The post Stats

This is the last post in today's data catch-up marathon. I'll also update a few more of the spreadsheets for members, and if the NWMLS posts their June data today I'll try to get that up as well.

For now, let's have a look at our "early" view on June stats.

In summary: Listings are still up from a year ago, but not by as much as they have been. Sales are down, but only just a bit.

The post Stats Preview: Sales dipped in June as listings increase shrank further appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As part of our data catch-up extravaganza, let's check in in on the latest data from the Consumer Confidence Index.

The overall Consumer Confidence Index currently sits at 121.5, down 7.5 percent in a month and down 4.4 percent from a year ago.

The post Consumer Confidence has been stagnating, and fell in June appeared first on Seattle

As part of our data catch-up extravaganza, let's check in in on the latest data from the Consumer Confidence Index.

The overall Consumer Confidence Index currently sits at 121.5, down 7.5 percent in a month and down 4.4 percent from a year ago.

The post Consumer Confidence has been stagnating, and fell in June appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Let's check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller's "Seattle" data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Year-over-year price growth is falling in all three tiers, with the high tier having flipped to year-over-year losses as of February.

The post Case-Shiller Tiers:

Let's check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller's "Seattle" data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Year-over-year price growth is falling in all three tiers, with the high tier having flipped to year-over-year losses as of February.

The post Case-Shiller Tiers: High Tier Price Drops Accelerate appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Let's play a bit of catch-up today with some stats that I've allowed to fall behind. First up, the latest Case-Shiller data from a couple weeks ago. According to April data that was released late June, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 1.1 percent March to April Up less than 0.1 percent YOY. Up 30.9 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were up 2.7 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 13.1

Let's play a bit of catch-up today with some stats that I've allowed to fall behind. First up, the latest Case-Shiller data from a couple weeks ago. According to April data that was released late June, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 1.1 percent March to April Up less than 0.1 percent YOY. Up 30.9 percent from the July 2007 peak

Last year at this time prices were up 2.7 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 13.1 percent.

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle-Area Home Prices Flat in April appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The NWMLS published their May stats today, so let's take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market. The King County median price of single-family homes was down year-over-year in May, the third month in a row of declines. Inventory was up from a year ago again, but the as we mentioned in the preview post earlier this week, the rate of increase is rapidly declining from the all-time high set in December. Pending and closed sales are increasing, but only modestly.

The post

The NWMLS published their May stats today, so let's take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market. The King County median price of single-family homes was down year-over-year in May, the third month in a row of declines. Inventory was up from a year ago again, but the as we mentioned in the preview post earlier this week, the rate of increase is rapidly declining from the all-time high set in December. Pending and closed sales are increasing, but only modestly.

The post NWMLS: Listings up, sales flat, prices fall in May appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It's been a few months since we took a look at the in-county breakdown data from the NWMLS to see how the sales mix shifted around the county. I like to keep an eye on this not only to see how individual neighborhoods are doing but also to see how the sales mix shift affects the overall county-wide median price.

As of March, prices are up from a year ago in the low-end regions, flat in the mid-range regions, and down in the high-end regions. Meanwhile, the share of sales is tilting toward the low-end

It's been a few months since we took a look at the in-county breakdown data from the NWMLS to see how the sales mix shifted around the county. I like to keep an eye on this not only to see how individual neighborhoods are doing but also to see how the sales mix shift affects the overall county-wide median price.

As of March, prices are up from a year ago in the low-end regions, flat in the mid-range regions, and down in the high-end regions. Meanwhile, the share of sales is tilting toward the low-end regions…

The post Cheapest parts of King County still make up the largest share of sales, even as prices there grow the most appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It's been a few months since we had a look at the stats in the broader Puget Sound area, so let's update our charts through March. Here's the latest update to our "Around the Sound" statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

King County still has some of the most dramatic changes, as the only county with a drop in the median price and by far the biggest increase in active listings. That said, active listings are up and closed sales are down across

It's been a few months since we had a look at the stats in the broader Puget Sound area, so let's update our charts through March. Here's the latest update to our "Around the Sound" statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

King County still has some of the most dramatic changes, as the only county with a drop in the median price and by far the biggest increase in active listings. That said, active listings are up and closed sales are down across the board. Skagit, Kitsap, Pierce, and Thurston all still saw double-digit year-over-year declines in sales…

The post Around the Sound: Inventory up, sales down across the board appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The NWMLS published their March stats today, so let's take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market. The King County median price of single-family homes was down year-over-year in March, falling more than it has since March of 2012. Inventory was up from a year ago again, but the increase was the smallest in the last five months. Pending sales recovered from the February snow storm dip, but were only up five percent…

The post NWMLS:

The NWMLS published their March stats today, so let's take a look at how the month shook out for the housing market. The King County median price of single-family homes was down year-over-year in March, falling more than it has since March of 2012. Inventory was up from a year ago again, but the increase was the smallest in the last five months. Pending sales recovered from the February snow storm dip, but were only up five percent…

The post NWMLS: Prices down, listings way up, sales flat from a year ago appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Let's take a look at our early March housing stats.

Overall the market is still moving in a direction favorable to buyers, but more slowly than it was late last year. By March of this year inventory is already at levels that it didn't hit until May or June last year. Meanwhile, sales are still down from a year earlier. Foreclosures are still not really an issue at all right now…

The post March

Let's take a look at our early March housing stats.

Overall the market is still moving in a direction favorable to buyers, but more slowly than it was late last year. By March of this year inventory is already at levels that it didn't hit until May or June last year. Meanwhile, sales are still down from a year earlier. Foreclosures are still not really an issue at all right now…

The post March Stats Preview: Inventory still up big, but gains slow even as home sales slip appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It's been a while since we posted our Case-Shiller charts and dashboards, so let's have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to January data that was released yesterday, Seattle-area home prices were: Down 0.3 percent December to January…

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle home price gains below average in January

It's been a while since we posted our Case-Shiller charts and dashboards, so let's have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to January data that was released yesterday, Seattle-area home prices were: Down 0.3 percent December to January…

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle home price gains below average in January appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Let's play some catchup and take a look at February market stats from the NWMLS. The King County median price of single-family homes was basically flat year-over-year in February, inventory was way up from a year ago but not by as much as it has been, and pending sales slipped thanks to the nasty weather…

The post NWMLS: Home prices back in black, snow storm freezes

Let's play some catchup and take a look at February market stats from the NWMLS. The King County median price of single-family homes was basically flat year-over-year in February, inventory was way up from a year ago but not by as much as it has been, and pending sales slipped thanks to the nasty weather…

The post NWMLS: Home prices back in black, snow storm freezes out pending sales appeared first on Seattle Bubble.