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Why Stronger Jobs Data Gave Way to a Rate Rally

Why Stronger Jobs Data Gave Way to a Rate Rally

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Why Stronger Jobs Data Gave Way to a Rate Rally
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Why Stronger Jobs Data Gave Way to a Rate Rally
Why Stronger Jobs Data Gave Way to a Rate Rally
Why Stronger Jobs Data Gave Way to a Rate Rally
Why Stronger Jobs Data Gave Way to a Rate Rally
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Why Stronger Jobs Data Gave Way to a Rate Rally Anything over 300k is big number for nonfarm payrolls.Β  Today's number was 315k.Β Β So why were rates able to rally in a reasonably big way after the data?Β  There are a few different reasons--all of them covered in today's video.Β  One of the best is that rates were prepared for the worst.Β  That's what the entire last month has been about.Β  There were also a few holes to be poked in the labor market message, but those seem secondary to the mere...
Why Stronger Jobs Data Gave Way to a Rate Rally Anything over 300k is big number for nonfarm payrolls.Β  Today's number was 315k.Β Β So why were rates able to rally in a reasonably big way after the data?Β  There are a few different reasons--all of them covered in today's video.Β  One of the best is that rates were prepared for the worst.Β  That's what the entire last month has been about.Β  There were also a few holes to be poked in the labor market message, but those seem secondary to the mere...
Why Were Rates Able to Defy Stronger Data?
Why Were Rates Able to Defy Stronger Data?
Why Were Rates Able to Defy Stronger Data?
Why Were Rates Able to Defy Stronger Data?
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Why Were Rates Able to Defy Stronger Data? With at least one Fed speaker mentioning Retail Sales as having a bearing on the Fed's debate between a 75bp and 100bp hike at the upcoming July meeting.Β  With a 1.0 vs 0.8 result, the market didn't really get a definitive verdict.Β  Yes, it's stronger, but not by enough as to make the Fed's choice obvious.Β Β It was also not enough to push inflation-adjusted sales into positive territory.Β  In short, it provided additional fuel for the notion that rec...
Why Were Rates Able to Defy Stronger Data? With at least one Fed speaker mentioning Retail Sales as having a bearing on the Fed's debate between a 75bp and 100bp hike at the upcoming July meeting.Β  With a 1.0 vs 0.8 result, the market didn't really get a definitive verdict.Β  Yes, it's stronger, but not by enough as to make the Fed's choice obvious.Β Β It was also not enough to push inflation-adjusted sales into positive territory.Β  In short, it provided additional fuel for the notion that rec...
MBS Live Recap: Rate Rally Returns With Help From Housing Data
MBS Live Recap: Rate Rally Returns With Help From Housing Data
MBS Live Recap: Rate Rally Returns With Help From Housing Data
MBS Live Recap: Rate Rally Returns With Help From Housing Data
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Rate Rally Returns With Help From Housing Data How about a good, old-fashioned market reaction to weaker economic data?  We've seen it a few times recently, but not in response to an "almost never" market mover like New Home Sales.  Today was an exception owing to the 591k headline vs a 750k forecast.  Bonds were already edging into stronger territory overnight on weak PMI data in Europe.  Domestic data took it to the next level with ...
Rate Rally Returns With Help From Housing Data How about a good, old-fashioned market reaction to weaker economic data?  We've seen it a few times recently, but not in response to an "almost never" market mover like New Home Sales.  Today was an exception owing to the 591k headline vs a 750k forecast.  Bonds were already edging into stronger territory overnight on weak PMI data in Europe.  Domestic data took it to the next level with ...
MBS Live Recap: Why Bonds Reacted to Such a Small Beat in The Jobs Data
MBS Live Recap: Why Bonds Reacted to Such a Small Beat in The Jobs Data
MBS Live Recap: Why Bonds Reacted to Such a Small Beat in The Jobs Data
MBS Live Recap: Why Bonds Reacted to Such a Small Beat in The Jobs Data
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Why Bonds Reacted to Such a Small Beat in The Jobs Data In today's jobs report, headline payrolls came in at 390k vs 325k f'cast, average hourly earnings dropped, and unemployment ticked up.Β  It would be hard to argue that this was an exceptionally strong result.Β  In fact, one could make the case it was somewhat lackluster.Β  But bonds sold-off as if the data provided some bullish economic surprise.Β  The selling is actually hard to justify based on the numbers above.Β  One of the only ways to...
Why Bonds Reacted to Such a Small Beat in The Jobs Data In today's jobs report, headline payrolls came in at 390k vs 325k f'cast, average hourly earnings dropped, and unemployment ticked up.Β  It would be hard to argue that this was an exceptionally strong result.Β  In fact, one could make the case it was somewhat lackluster.Β  But bonds sold-off as if the data provided some bullish economic surprise.Β  The selling is actually hard to justify based on the numbers above.Β  One of the only ways to...
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Weaker Start on Stronger Payrolls Data
Weaker Start on Stronger Payrolls Data
Weaker Start on Stronger Payrolls Data
Weaker Start on Stronger Payrolls Data
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
This morning's nonfarm payroll count came in at 372k versus a 268k consensus.Β  Unemployment and wages held steady (with a small +0.1% revision to last month's wage growth).Β  This was enough strength for bonds to sell off at a moderately brisk pace to start to the domestic session.Β  After a brief attempt at a supportive bounce, yields moved even higher. As the chart shows, stocks lost ground at first.Β  This is counter-intuitive, of course, because if we assume that a stronger economic report...
This morning's nonfarm payroll count came in at 372k versus a 268k consensus.Β  Unemployment and wages held steady (with a small +0.1% revision to last month's wage growth).Β  This was enough strength for bonds to sell off at a moderately brisk pace to start to the domestic session.Β  After a brief attempt at a supportive bounce, yields moved even higher. As the chart shows, stocks lost ground at first.Β  This is counter-intuitive, of course, because if we assume that a stronger economic report...
Surprisingly Resilient After Stronger ISM Data
Surprisingly Resilient After Stronger ISM Data
Surprisingly Resilient After Stronger ISM Data
Surprisingly Resilient After Stronger ISM Data
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Surprisingly Resilient After Stronger ISM Data Wednesday's key data point was the ISM Non-Manufacturing index.Β  The ISM indices always haveΒ the power to move markets.Β  Their relevance is arguably amplified at present as investors sift through cues regarding inflation and economic contraction.Β  While the inflation component of the data was moving in the right direction, prices continued to rise. More importantly, the parts of the report that concern the health of the services sector were more...
Surprisingly Resilient After Stronger ISM Data Wednesday's key data point was the ISM Non-Manufacturing index.Β  The ISM indices always haveΒ the power to move markets.Β  Their relevance is arguably amplified at present as investors sift through cues regarding inflation and economic contraction.Β  While the inflation component of the data was moving in the right direction, prices continued to rise. More importantly, the parts of the report that concern the health of the services sector were more...
Bonds Digesting Stronger Jobs Report Without Any Panic
Bonds Digesting Stronger Jobs Report Without Any Panic
Bonds Digesting Stronger Jobs Report Without Any Panic
Bonds Digesting Stronger Jobs Report Without Any Panic
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
This morning's centerpiece was the nonfarm payrolls number coming in at 260 versus a median forecast of 200k.Β  Additionally, the previous month was revised up to 315k from 263k.Β  Internal components were mixed with some bond-friendly argument to be made from 3.7% unemployment and a 0.1% drop in the participation rate (effectively a 0.2% increase in unemployment over last month's 3.5%).Β  Despite the counterpoint, the NFP headline clearly argues against a change in the Fed's rate hike outlook.?...
This morning's centerpiece was the nonfarm payrolls number coming in at 260 versus a median forecast of 200k.Β  Additionally, the previous month was revised up to 315k from 263k.Β  Internal components were mixed with some bond-friendly argument to be made from 3.7% unemployment and a 0.1% drop in the participation rate (effectively a 0.2% increase in unemployment over last month's 3.5%).Β  Despite the counterpoint, the NFP headline clearly argues against a change in the Fed's rate hike outlook.?...
Bonds Resilient Despite Stronger Retail Sales Data
Bonds Resilient Despite Stronger Retail Sales Data
Bonds Resilient Despite Stronger Retail Sales Data
Bonds Resilient Despite Stronger Retail Sales Data
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
With at least one Fed speaker mentioning Retail Sales as having a bearing on the Fed's debate between a 75bp and 100bp hike at the upcoming July meeting, the market waited patiently for this morning's data.Β  With a 1.0 vs 0.8 result, the market didn't really get a definitive verdict.Β  Yes, it's stronger, but not by enough as to make the Fed's choice obvious.Β  Traders are making similar conclusions with Fed Funds FuturesΒ recovering afterΒ initial volatility. The rate hike outlook changed most...
With at least one Fed speaker mentioning Retail Sales as having a bearing on the Fed's debate between a 75bp and 100bp hike at the upcoming July meeting, the market waited patiently for this morning's data.Β  With a 1.0 vs 0.8 result, the market didn't really get a definitive verdict.Β  Yes, it's stronger, but not by enough as to make the Fed's choice obvious.Β  Traders are making similar conclusions with Fed Funds FuturesΒ recovering afterΒ initial volatility. The rate hike outlook changed most...
MBS Live Recap: Big Sell Off After a Nice Rally. Blame The Fed Either Way?
MBS Live Recap: Big Sell Off After a Nice Rally. Blame The Fed Either Way?
MBS Live Recap: Big Sell Off After a Nice Rally. Blame The Fed Either Way?
MBS Live Recap: Big Sell Off After a Nice Rally. Blame The Fed Either Way?
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Big Sell Off After a Nice Rally. Blame The Fed Either Way? Today was one of the rare breed where both stocks and bonds made massive moves without any indisputable, overt, new justification.Β  It was a gradual, methodical move by intraday standards.Β  It came on slowly at first, accelerated into the crux of AM liquidity hours, and faded in the afternoon.Β  While we can point to one or two individual considerations, none of them are up to the task of expl...
Big Sell Off After a Nice Rally. Blame The Fed Either Way? Today was one of the rare breed where both stocks and bonds made massive moves without any indisputable, overt, new justification.Β  It was a gradual, methodical move by intraday standards.Β  It came on slowly at first, accelerated into the crux of AM liquidity hours, and faded in the afternoon.Β  While we can point to one or two individual considerations, none of them are up to the task of expl...