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August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data

August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data

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August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data
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August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data
August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data
August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data
August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data During the Fed's press conference last week, Powell reiterated what we thought we already knew about Fed policy and the bond market in general.ย  Specifically, the next big-picture shift will be data dependent.ย  In several ways, that narrative already began playing out in July.ย  Now August is kicking things off in the same vein with a big drop in manufacturing inflation (via ISM's "prices paid" component) this morning.ย  Bonds rallied after that ...
August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data During the Fed's press conference last week, Powell reiterated what we thought we already knew about Fed policy and the bond market in general.ย  Specifically, the next big-picture shift will be data dependent.ย  In several ways, that narrative already began playing out in July.ย  Now August is kicking things off in the same vein with a big drop in manufacturing inflation (via ISM's "prices paid" component) this morning.ย  Bonds rallied after that ...
Strong Start on Data-Heavy Week Thanks to UK's Retraction And ISM Data
Strong Start on Data-Heavy Week Thanks to UK's Retraction And ISM Data
Strong Start on Data-Heavy Week Thanks to UK's Retraction And ISM Data
Strong Start on Data-Heavy Week Thanks to UK's Retraction And ISM Data
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Bond yields trickled sideways to slightly stronger to start the overnight session, but experienced better gains as the big news out of the UK made the rounds.ย  The news in question was/is a retraction of the budgetary announcement that was primarily responsible for the rate spike that began 2 Friday's ago (2 days after the Fed meeting).ย  More than half of that sell-off has now been retraced with US 10s starting the day trading just under the 3.71% technical level (down more than 11bps).ย  MBS ...
Bond yields trickled sideways to slightly stronger to start the overnight session, but experienced better gains as the big news out of the UK made the rounds.ย  The news in question was/is a retraction of the budgetary announcement that was primarily responsible for the rate spike that began 2 Friday's ago (2 days after the Fed meeting).ย  More than half of that sell-off has now been retraced with US 10s starting the day trading just under the 3.71% technical level (down more than 11bps).ย  MBS ...
Strong Start on Weaker Global Outlook
Strong Start on Weaker Global Outlook
Strong Start on Weaker Global Outlook
Strong Start on Weaker Global Outlook
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US Treasury yields...ย  All of the above moved steadily lower in the overnight session amid a broad risk-off trade.ย  A technical break of June's uptrend in rates is adding the momentum, and so far, Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony is being received as more dovish than hawkish. The Here's a look at the technical break of June's uptrend in bond yields:
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US Treasury yields...ย  All of the above moved steadily lower in the overnight session amid a broad risk-off trade.ย  A technical break of June's uptrend in rates is adding the momentum, and so far, Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony is being received as more dovish than hawkish. The Here's a look at the technical break of June's uptrend in bond yields:
Weaker Start on Stronger Payrolls Data
Weaker Start on Stronger Payrolls Data
Weaker Start on Stronger Payrolls Data
Weaker Start on Stronger Payrolls Data
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
This morning's nonfarm payroll count came in at 372k versus a 268k consensus.ย  Unemployment and wages held steady (with a small +0.1% revision to last month's wage growth).ย  This was enough strength for bonds to sell off at a moderately brisk pace to start to the domestic session.ย  After a brief attempt at a supportive bounce, yields moved even higher. As the chart shows, stocks lost ground at first.ย  This is counter-intuitive, of course, because if we assume that a stronger economic report...
This morning's nonfarm payroll count came in at 372k versus a 268k consensus.ย  Unemployment and wages held steady (with a small +0.1% revision to last month's wage growth).ย  This was enough strength for bonds to sell off at a moderately brisk pace to start to the domestic session.ย  After a brief attempt at a supportive bounce, yields moved even higher. As the chart shows, stocks lost ground at first.ย  This is counter-intuitive, of course, because if we assume that a stronger economic report...
Dodge: Construction starts jump, pipeline strong
Dodge: Construction starts jump, pipeline strong
Dodge: Construction starts jump, pipeline strong
Dodge: Construction starts jump, pipeline strong
constructiondive constructiondive | 1 year ago
Commercial building grows despite supply chain issues, the war in Ukraine and rising inflation, but a recession would slow that growth, an economist said.
Commercial building grows despite supply chain issues, the war in Ukraine and rising inflation, but a recession would slow that growth, an economist said.
Volatile, Weaker Morning With Lots of Data to Digest
Volatile, Weaker Morning With Lots of Data to Digest
Volatile, Weaker Morning With Lots of Data to Digest
Volatile, Weaker Morning With Lots of Data to Digest
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Bonds traded an almost perfectly straight, gradually-sloped line toward higher yields overnight and were even able to mostly ignore moderate volatility in European markets (much more so than normal).ย  We knew today's AM data would play some sort of supporting role in shaping the outlook for next week's Fed meeting and it has not disappointed in that regard.ย  Unfortunately, that role is incredibly dynamic given the multitude of mixed messages.ย  Paradoxically, traders' takeaways seem to be to m...
Bonds traded an almost perfectly straight, gradually-sloped line toward higher yields overnight and were even able to mostly ignore moderate volatility in European markets (much more so than normal).ย  We knew today's AM data would play some sort of supporting role in shaping the outlook for next week's Fed meeting and it has not disappointed in that regard.ย  Unfortunately, that role is incredibly dynamic given the multitude of mixed messages.ย  Paradoxically, traders' takeaways seem to be to m...
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook Between Wednesday's ISM Services data and Friday's jobs report, the market was faced with two compelling "yeah buts" to what has generally been a symphony of economic bearishness over the past few weeks.ย  Whereas inflation reports in June and July ultimately didn'tย ultimately didn't extend the market's perceived timeframe for the Fed's first rate cut in 2023 (i.e. June Fed Funds Futures were back to late May levels by the start of this week) the strong d...
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook Between Wednesday's ISM Services data and Friday's jobs report, the market was faced with two compelling "yeah buts" to what has generally been a symphony of economic bearishness over the past few weeks.ย  Whereas inflation reports in June and July ultimately didn'tย ultimately didn't extend the market's perceived timeframe for the Fed's first rate cut in 2023 (i.e. June Fed Funds Futures were back to late May levels by the start of this week) the strong d...
Big Bad Econ Data and Big ECB News = Big Victory For Bonds
Big Bad Econ Data and Big ECB News = Big Victory For Bonds
Big Bad Econ Data and Big ECB News = Big Victory For Bonds
Big Bad Econ Data and Big ECB News = Big Victory For Bonds
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Big Bad Econ Data and Big ECB News = Big Victory For Bonds Bonds shrugged off a 50bp hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) to focus on the unveiling of a new bond buying program (TPI) as well as an exceptionally weak Philly Fed Index.ย  Along with a disconcertingly linear of higher jobless claims and a gigantic block trade on the CME, the AM events sparked a sharp rally into the 11am hour.ย  US yields cooled off when EU markets closed but found their second wind heading into the close.ย  10s...
Big Bad Econ Data and Big ECB News = Big Victory For Bonds Bonds shrugged off a 50bp hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) to focus on the unveiling of a new bond buying program (TPI) as well as an exceptionally weak Philly Fed Index.ย  Along with a disconcertingly linear of higher jobless claims and a gigantic block trade on the CME, the AM events sparked a sharp rally into the 11am hour.ย  US yields cooled off when EU markets closed but found their second wind heading into the close.ย  10s...
Housing starts data lags reality of higher mortgage rates
Housing starts data lags reality of higher mortgage rates
Housing starts data lags reality of higher mortgage rates
Housing starts data lags reality of higher mortgage rates
housingwire housingwire | 1 year ago
Higher mortgage rates are hitting the housing starts data, and the real story is that the housing completion data is still terrible. The post Housing starts data lags reality of higher mortgage rates appeared first on HousingWire.
Higher mortgage rates are hitting the housing starts data, and the real story is that the housing completion data is still terrible. The post Housing starts data lags reality of higher mortgage rates appeared first on HousingWire.
Starts Stay Strong in First Half as Possible Recession Looms
Starts Stay Strong in First Half as Possible Recession Looms
Starts Stay Strong in First Half as Possible Recession Looms
Starts Stay Strong in First Half as Possible Recession Looms
Engineering News-Record Engineering News-Rec... | 1 year ago
July 13, 2022 Alisa Zevin KEYWORDS 2022 / 2Q Cost Report / Economics / Manufacturing / recession Order Reprints No Comments .pullquote{ width: 250px; padding: 20px; } .pullquote a:link{ border-bottom: none; } .pullquote a:hover{ border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; } .pullquote a:visited{ border-bottom: none; ...
July 13, 2022 Alisa Zevin KEYWORDS 2022 / 2Q Cost Report / Economics / Manufacturing / recession Order Reprints No Comments .pullquote{ width: 250px; padding: 20px; } .pullquote a:link{ border-bottom: none; } .pullquote a:hover{ border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; } .pullquote a:visited{ border-bottom: none; ...