Strong Start on Weaker Global Outlook
Strong Start on Weaker Global Outlook
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US Treasury yields...Β All of the above moved steadily lower in the overnight session amid a broad risk-off trade.Β A technical break of June's uptrend in rates is adding the momentum, and so far, Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony is being received as more dovish than hawkish.
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Here's a look at the technical break of June's uptrend in bond yields:
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Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US Treasury yields...Β All of the above moved steadily lower in the overnight session amid a broad risk-off trade.Β A technical break of June's uptrend in rates is adding the momentum, and so far, Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony is being received as more dovish than hawkish. The Here's a look at the technical break of June's uptrend in bond yields:
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US Treasury yields...Β All of the above moved steadily lower in the overnight session amid a broad risk-off trade.Β A technical break of June's uptrend in rates is adding the momentum, and so far, Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony is being received as more dovish than hawkish. The Here's a look at the technical break of June's uptrend in bond yields:
This morning's nonfarm payroll count came in at 372k versus a 268k consensus.Β Unemployment and wages held steady (with a small +0.1% revision to last month's wage growth).Β This was enough strength for bonds to sell off at a moderately brisk pace to start to the domestic session.Β After a brief attempt at a supportive bounce, yields moved even higher. As the chart shows, stocks lost ground at first.Β This is counter-intuitive, of course, because if we assume that a stronger economic report...
This morning's nonfarm payroll count came in at 372k versus a 268k consensus.Β Unemployment and wages held steady (with a small +0.1% revision to last month's wage growth).Β This was enough strength for bonds to sell off at a moderately brisk pace to start to the domestic session.Β After a brief attempt at a supportive bounce, yields moved even higher. As the chart shows, stocks lost ground at first.Β This is counter-intuitive, of course, because if we assume that a stronger economic report...
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook Between Wednesday's ISM Services data and Friday's jobs report, the market was faced with two compelling "yeah buts" to what has generally been a symphony of economic bearishness over the past few weeks.Β Whereas inflation reports in June and July ultimately didn'tΒ ultimately didn't extend the market's perceived timeframe for the Fed's first rate cut in 2023 (i.e. June Fed Funds Futures were back to late May levels by the start of this week) the strong d...
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook Between Wednesday's ISM Services data and Friday's jobs report, the market was faced with two compelling "yeah buts" to what has generally been a symphony of economic bearishness over the past few weeks.Β Whereas inflation reports in June and July ultimately didn'tΒ ultimately didn't extend the market's perceived timeframe for the Fed's first rate cut in 2023 (i.e. June Fed Funds Futures were back to late May levels by the start of this week) the strong d...
Strong Start and Strong Reversal Ahead of ECB European markets led bonds well into stronger territory overnight.Β Lighter volume/liquidity conditions made Treasuries all the more impressionable.Β US traders added briefly to the gains at the 8:20am CME open before embarking on a linear sell-off culminating in modestly weaker levels.Β A well-received 20yr bond auction helped stop the bleeding, but just barely.Β All of the above can also be broadly thought of as the bond market jockeying for po...
Strong Start and Strong Reversal Ahead of ECB European markets led bonds well into stronger territory overnight.Β Lighter volume/liquidity conditions made Treasuries all the more impressionable.Β US traders added briefly to the gains at the 8:20am CME open before embarking on a linear sell-off culminating in modestly weaker levels.Β A well-received 20yr bond auction helped stop the bleeding, but just barely.Β All of the above can also be broadly thought of as the bond market jockeying for po...
August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data During the Fed's press conference last week, Powell reiterated what we thought we already knew about Fed policy and the bond market in general.Β Specifically, the next big-picture shift will be data dependent.Β In several ways, that narrative already began playing out in July.Β Now August is kicking things off in the same vein with a big drop in manufacturing inflation (via ISM's "prices paid" component) this morning.Β Bonds rallied after that ...
August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data During the Fed's press conference last week, Powell reiterated what we thought we already knew about Fed policy and the bond market in general.Β Specifically, the next big-picture shift will be data dependent.Β In several ways, that narrative already began playing out in July.Β Now August is kicking things off in the same vein with a big drop in manufacturing inflation (via ISM's "prices paid" component) this morning.Β Bonds rallied after that ...
In 2021, global property funds recorded its highest annual return in at least 13 years, according to the MSCI Global Quarterly Property Fund Index.
The post Global Property Fund Returns Underpinned by Strong Industrial Performance appeared first on Commercial Property Executive.
In 2021, global property funds recorded its highest annual return in at least 13 years, according to the MSCI Global Quarterly Property Fund Index.
The post Global Property Fund Returns Underpinned by Strong Industrial Performance appeared first on Commercial Property Executive.
Strong Start Balanced by Potential Resistance Bonds rallied early in the domestic session and again heading into the noon hour before finally giving up a portion of the gains heading into the PM hours.Β A strong correlation with stocks, oil, and EU bonds suggests a simple "risk-off" thesis is as good an explanation as any.Β In short, markets are repositioning for a cooler global economy and what hopefully turns out to be the defeat of runaway inflation.Β Declaring victory on inflation will ta...
Strong Start Balanced by Potential Resistance Bonds rallied early in the domestic session and again heading into the noon hour before finally giving up a portion of the gains heading into the PM hours.Β A strong correlation with stocks, oil, and EU bonds suggests a simple "risk-off" thesis is as good an explanation as any.Β In short, markets are repositioning for a cooler global economy and what hopefully turns out to be the defeat of runaway inflation.Β Declaring victory on inflation will ta...
The previous week ended with bonds on the run and yields threatening to break up and over the 2.85% technical level.Β That breakout was somewhat inconclusive by Friday afternoon as a modest rallyΒ resulted in levels of 2.849% at the 3pm CME close.Β The same ceiling was tested again in the overnight session, but buyers jumped in fairly quickly with gains ramping up into domestic hours.Β All of the above builds the sense that last week constituted a failed breakout attempt and that 2.85% can co...
The previous week ended with bonds on the run and yields threatening to break up and over the 2.85% technical level.Β That breakout was somewhat inconclusive by Friday afternoon as a modest rallyΒ resulted in levels of 2.849% at the 3pm CME close.Β The same ceiling was tested again in the overnight session, but buyers jumped in fairly quickly with gains ramping up into domestic hours.Β All of the above builds the sense that last week constituted a failed breakout attempt and that 2.85% can co...
PCE inflation data painted a cooler picture than the most recent CPI report (the one that sent rates surging higher into mid-June).Β So far this morning, it has helped lock in a relatively strong move in the European session overnight.Β At the very least, if bonds end up losing ground today, it won't be due to an inflation surprise.Β Both Treasuries and MBS are starting out at their best levels in more than 3 weeks.Β Stocks have been able to bounce back from overnight weakness as tamer infla...
PCE inflation data painted a cooler picture than the most recent CPI report (the one that sent rates surging higher into mid-June).Β So far this morning, it has helped lock in a relatively strong move in the European session overnight.Β At the very least, if bonds end up losing ground today, it won't be due to an inflation surprise.Β Both Treasuries and MBS are starting out at their best levels in more than 3 weeks.Β Stocks have been able to bounce back from overnight weakness as tamer infla...
There are times when a particular event garners too much attention as the most important consideration for bond market momentum.Β If any event were to be considered for such a label, it would surely be Tuesday's CPI report.Β In this case, however, the excessive focus is quite possibly--or even probably--perfectly justified.Β Between now and then, we have no scheduled economic data--just the 3 and 10yr Treasury auctions on the calendar.Β Bonds have managed a slightly stronger start despite su...
There are times when a particular event garners too much attention as the most important consideration for bond market momentum.Β If any event were to be considered for such a label, it would surely be Tuesday's CPI report.Β In this case, however, the excessive focus is quite possibly--or even probably--perfectly justified.Β Between now and then, we have no scheduled economic data--just the 3 and 10yr Treasury auctions on the calendar.Β Bonds have managed a slightly stronger start despite su...