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Here's What Matters on Fed Day

Here's What Matters on Fed Day

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Here's What Matters on Fed Day
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Here's What Matters on Fed Day
Here's What Matters on Fed Day
Here's What Matters on Fed Day
Here's What Matters on Fed Day
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Here's What Matters on Fed Day Bonds sold off some more today because why not?!Β  10yr yields were more involved than 2s for a change, ultimately setting new long-term highs of 3.604.Β  MBS outperformed thanks to their shorter implied duration vs 10s.Β  Selling is selling at this point.Β  We've seen plenty and it's been unfortunately linear since August.Β  How about Fed day?Β  Today's video breaks down what we know, what we don't, and what parts of the Fed events are most likely to produce volat...
Here's What Matters on Fed Day Bonds sold off some more today because why not?!Β  10yr yields were more involved than 2s for a change, ultimately setting new long-term highs of 3.604.Β  MBS outperformed thanks to their shorter implied duration vs 10s.Β  Selling is selling at this point.Β  We've seen plenty and it's been unfortunately linear since August.Β  How about Fed day?Β  Today's video breaks down what we know, what we don't, and what parts of the Fed events are most likely to produce volat...
Here's What Matters on Fed Day, Part 2
Here's What Matters on Fed Day, Part 2
Here's What Matters on Fed Day, Part 2
Here's What Matters on Fed Day, Part 2
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
There continue to be headlines regarding some sort of "mobilization" of troops with the most recent seeing Putin claim that the West is threatening Russia's "territorial integrity."Β  Is there an "OK Vlad" equivalent to "OK boomer?"Β  No one cares at this point--least of all financial markets until words translate to quantifiable material impacts.Β  And sadly, for the market's purposes, it's less about the needless loss of life and more about the impact on commodities prices and supply chains.Β ...
There continue to be headlines regarding some sort of "mobilization" of troops with the most recent seeing Putin claim that the West is threatening Russia's "territorial integrity."Β  Is there an "OK Vlad" equivalent to "OK boomer?"Β  No one cares at this point--least of all financial markets until words translate to quantifiable material impacts.Β  And sadly, for the market's purposes, it's less about the needless loss of life and more about the impact on commodities prices and supply chains.Β ...
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Overall economic activity appears toRecent indicators of spending and production have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Jobsoftened. Nonetheless, job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. The invasion ofRussia's war against Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic ...
Overall economic activity appears toRecent indicators of spending and production have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Jobsoftened. Nonetheless, job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. The invasion ofRussia's war against Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic ...
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Recent indicators ofpoint to modest growth in spending and production have softened. Nonetheless, jobproduction. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressu...
Recent indicators ofpoint to modest growth in spending and production have softened. Nonetheless, jobproduction. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressu...
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global...
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global...
Strong Start, But Tuesday's CPI is What Matters
Strong Start, But Tuesday's CPI is What Matters
Strong Start, But Tuesday's CPI is What Matters
Strong Start, But Tuesday's CPI is What Matters
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
There are times when a particular event garners too much attention as the most important consideration for bond market momentum.Β  If any event were to be considered for such a label, it would surely be Tuesday's CPI report.Β  In this case, however, the excessive focus is quite possibly--or even probably--perfectly justified.Β  Between now and then, we have no scheduled economic data--just the 3 and 10yr Treasury auctions on the calendar.Β  Bonds have managed a slightly stronger start despite su...
There are times when a particular event garners too much attention as the most important consideration for bond market momentum.Β  If any event were to be considered for such a label, it would surely be Tuesday's CPI report.Β  In this case, however, the excessive focus is quite possibly--or even probably--perfectly justified.Β  Between now and then, we have no scheduled economic data--just the 3 and 10yr Treasury auctions on the calendar.Β  Bonds have managed a slightly stronger start despite su...
What's at Stake With Today's Fed Announcement?
What's at Stake With Today's Fed Announcement?
What's at Stake With Today's Fed Announcement?
What's at Stake With Today's Fed Announcement?
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
The Fed has 8 scheduled meetings per year.Β  4 of them include a dot plot with each member's rate hike outlook.Β  Those announcement days tend to produce the most volatility.Β  Today is not one of them, but that doesn't mean we can sleep on volatility.Β  Just under 2 weeks ago, the notion of a Fed pivot (a shift toward smaller rate hikes over the next few meetings and then no rate hikes for as long as possible) helped bonds recover from the highest rates in more than a decade.Β  So while a 0.75%...
The Fed has 8 scheduled meetings per year.Β  4 of them include a dot plot with each member's rate hike outlook.Β  Those announcement days tend to produce the most volatility.Β  Today is not one of them, but that doesn't mean we can sleep on volatility.Β  Just under 2 weeks ago, the notion of a Fed pivot (a shift toward smaller rate hikes over the next few meetings and then no rate hikes for as long as possible) helped bonds recover from the highest rates in more than a decade.Β  So while a 0.75%...
It Doesn't Matter if Powell's Speech Matters
It Doesn't Matter if Powell's Speech Matters
It Doesn't Matter if Powell's Speech Matters
It Doesn't Matter if Powell's Speech Matters
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
It Doesn't Matter if Powell's Speech Matters Some things will be yearned for, anticipated, and sought after regardless of how likely or attainable they are.Β  Applying this general truth to Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell, we can rest assured that there's no possible way for Powell to give the market what it truly desires: clarity on the Fed's policy path in the coming weeks and months.Β  All Powell can do is remind the market that such clarity will only gradually come into fo...
It Doesn't Matter if Powell's Speech Matters Some things will be yearned for, anticipated, and sought after regardless of how likely or attainable they are.Β  Applying this general truth to Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell, we can rest assured that there's no possible way for Powell to give the market what it truly desires: clarity on the Fed's policy path in the coming weeks and months.Β  All Powell can do is remind the market that such clarity will only gradually come into fo...
MBS Live Recap: Another Solid Day, But It's All About Wednesday's CPI
MBS Live Recap: Another Solid Day, But It's All About Wednesday's CPI
MBS Live Recap: Another Solid Day, But It's All About Wednesday's CPI
MBS Live Recap: Another Solid Day, But It's All About Wednesday's CPI
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Another Solid Day, But It's All About Wednesday's CPI Bonds managed to post a 2nd consecutive day of gains on Tuesday--a feat seldom seen in 2022 apart from the initial flight to safety at the start of the Ukraine war.  Actual motivations for the gains are as hard to justify as the motivations for the sell-off last Friday.  One looks like a correction to the other.  If forced to name names, we might point to tempered comments from several ...
Another Solid Day, But It's All About Wednesday's CPI Bonds managed to post a 2nd consecutive day of gains on Tuesday--a feat seldom seen in 2022 apart from the initial flight to safety at the start of the Ukraine war.  Actual motivations for the gains are as hard to justify as the motivations for the sell-off last Friday.  One looks like a correction to the other.  If forced to name names, we might point to tempered comments from several ...
MBS Live Morning: What Can Today's Fed Minutes Tell Us That We Don't Already Know?
MBS Live Morning: What Can Today's Fed Minutes Tell Us That We Don't Already Know?
MBS Live Morning: What Can Today's Fed Minutes Tell Us That We Don't Already Know?
MBS Live Morning: What Can Today's Fed Minutes Tell Us That We Don't Already Know?
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
In the run up to the most recent Fed announcement, the 50bp rate hike was a foregone conclusion.Β  There was some uncertainty about how the Fed would announce balance sheet normalization, but there too, they stuck to the script.Β  With normalization underway and ample Fed comments in the past 2 weeks on the certainty of several 50bp rate hikes, what's left to learn from the Minutes?Β  In this case, it's not so much about uncovering new concepts as it is about seeing how broad the consensus is.Β ...
In the run up to the most recent Fed announcement, the 50bp rate hike was a foregone conclusion.Β  There was some uncertainty about how the Fed would announce balance sheet normalization, but there too, they stuck to the script.Β  With normalization underway and ample Fed comments in the past 2 weeks on the certainty of several 50bp rate hikes, what's left to learn from the Minutes?Β  In this case, it's not so much about uncovering new concepts as it is about seeing how broad the consensus is.Β ...