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MBS Live Recap: Big Losses For Bonds After 3 Weeks of Gains

MBS Live Recap: Big Losses For Bonds After 3 Weeks of Gains

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MBS Live Recap: Big Losses For Bonds After 3 Weeks of Gains
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MBS Live Recap: Big Losses For Bonds After 3 Weeks of Gains
MBS Live Recap: Big Losses For Bonds After 3 Weeks of Gains
MBS Live Recap: Big Losses For Bonds After 3 Weeks of Gains
MBS Live Recap: Big Losses For Bonds After 3 Weeks of Gains
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Big Losses For Bonds After 3 Weeks of Gains The last 3 weeks of May were like an oasis in what has otherwise been a wasteland of bond market weakness in 2022.Β  Sure, there was a temporary flight to safety when Russia invaded Ukraine, but that was never bound to be a sustainable source of bond buying demand.Β  If anything, it increased inflation concerns (and consequently kept upward pressure on yields).Β  Speaking of unsustainable things, suspected May's rally was set to give way to a volatile ...
Big Losses For Bonds After 3 Weeks of Gains The last 3 weeks of May were like an oasis in what has otherwise been a wasteland of bond market weakness in 2022.Β  Sure, there was a temporary flight to safety when Russia invaded Ukraine, but that was never bound to be a sustainable source of bond buying demand.Β  If anything, it increased inflation concerns (and consequently kept upward pressure on yields).Β  Speaking of unsustainable things, suspected May's rally was set to give way to a volatile ...
MBS Live Recap: Abnormally Uneventful Friday For Bonds
MBS Live Recap: Abnormally Uneventful Friday For Bonds
MBS Live Recap: Abnormally Uneventful Friday For Bonds
MBS Live Recap: Abnormally Uneventful Friday For Bonds
News & media website News & media website | 2 years ago
Abnormally Uneventful Friday For Bonds Whether we're talking about actual Fridays or Thursdays that fall before 3-day weekends, the last trading day of each of the past 4 weeks has not been great for the bond market.Β  One of them marked an abrupt reversal of our best shot at consolidation, and the other three took rates rapidly up to new long-term highs.Β  Today was great by comparison with Treasury yields falling modestly and MBS holding mostly steady ...
Abnormally Uneventful Friday For Bonds Whether we're talking about actual Fridays or Thursdays that fall before 3-day weekends, the last trading day of each of the past 4 weeks has not been great for the bond market.Β  One of them marked an abrupt reversal of our best shot at consolidation, and the other three took rates rapidly up to new long-term highs.Β  Today was great by comparison with Treasury yields falling modestly and MBS holding mostly steady ...
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Hold Decent Gains to Start New Week
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Hold Decent Gains to Start New Week
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Hold Decent Gains to Start New Week
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Hold Decent Gains to Start New Week
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Bonds Hold Decent Gains to Start New Week After mixed trading overnight, bonds began the day in the US at relatively unchanged levels before rallying throughout the morning hours.  There has been a good amount of correlation between stocks and bond yields over the past week.  Oil prices joined that bandwagon on Thursday and the correlation continued right up to the 8:20am CME open.  At that point, new trades for the new week along with glo...
Bonds Hold Decent Gains to Start New Week After mixed trading overnight, bonds began the day in the US at relatively unchanged levels before rallying throughout the morning hours.  There has been a good amount of correlation between stocks and bond yields over the past week.  Oil prices joined that bandwagon on Thursday and the correlation continued right up to the 8:20am CME open.  At that point, new trades for the new week along with glo...
MBS Live Recap: More Gains, But Harder to Hold After Europe Stopped Trading
MBS Live Recap: More Gains, But Harder to Hold After Europe Stopped Trading
MBS Live Recap: More Gains, But Harder to Hold After Europe Stopped Trading
MBS Live Recap: More Gains, But Harder to Hold After Europe Stopped Trading
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
More Gains, But Harder to Hold After Europe Stopped Trading Bonds made decent gains overnight as overseas markets continued to trade "global growth concerns" (with an eye on China's covid situation among other things).Β  Virtually all of the improvement occurred during European trading hours with a modest give-back in the US-only hours.Β  This isn't always an important detail, but it seems notable in the current case given that both days this week have s...
More Gains, But Harder to Hold After Europe Stopped Trading Bonds made decent gains overnight as overseas markets continued to trade "global growth concerns" (with an eye on China's covid situation among other things).Β  Virtually all of the improvement occurred during European trading hours with a modest give-back in the US-only hours.Β  This isn't always an important detail, but it seems notable in the current case given that both days this week have s...
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Holding Gains Despite Bounce in Stocks; Fed Minutes Uneventful
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Holding Gains Despite Bounce in Stocks; Fed Minutes Uneventful
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Holding Gains Despite Bounce in Stocks; Fed Minutes Uneventful
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Holding Gains Despite Bounce in Stocks; Fed Minutes Uneventful
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Bonds Holding Gains Despite Bounce in Stocks; Fed Minutes Uneventful Today's Fed Minutes proved to be every bit as uneventful as they might have been.  There was no meaningful reaction in the bond market, though one might content that stocks improved as a result.  Therein lies the day's most interesting development: the biggest divergence between stocks and bond yields that we've seen in the past few weeks, or rather, the confirmation that...
Bonds Holding Gains Despite Bounce in Stocks; Fed Minutes Uneventful Today's Fed Minutes proved to be every bit as uneventful as they might have been.  There was no meaningful reaction in the bond market, though one might content that stocks improved as a result.  Therein lies the day's most interesting development: the biggest divergence between stocks and bond yields that we've seen in the past few weeks, or rather, the confirmation that...
MBS Live Morning: Good Start For Bonds After Cooler CPI
MBS Live Morning: Good Start For Bonds After Cooler CPI
MBS Live Morning: Good Start For Bonds After Cooler CPI
MBS Live Morning: Good Start For Bonds After Cooler CPI
News & media website News & media website | 2 years ago
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) is arguably the most important data point for interest rates in a world where inflation is at the highest levels since the 80s and the Fed is not currently worried about the labor market (otherwise, NFP would still command more respect).Β  Markets were concerned that this morning's release could be even hotter than forecasts suggested (granted, most of the year-over-year increase at the core level was expected due to "base effects").Β  As it happened, monthly CPI...
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) is arguably the most important data point for interest rates in a world where inflation is at the highest levels since the 80s and the Fed is not currently worried about the labor market (otherwise, NFP would still command more respect).Β  Markets were concerned that this morning's release could be even hotter than forecasts suggested (granted, most of the year-over-year increase at the core level was expected due to "base effects").Β  As it happened, monthly CPI...
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Doing Admirable Job of Digesting Harsh New Reality
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Doing Admirable Job of Digesting Harsh New Reality
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Doing Admirable Job of Digesting Harsh New Reality
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Doing Admirable Job of Digesting Harsh New Reality
News & media website News & media website | 2 years ago
Bonds Doing Admirable Job of Digesting Harsh New Reality Yesterday's comments from Fed Vice Chair Brainard effectively prepped the bond market to receive some bad news today.Β  Trader's correctly guessed that Brainard's hawkish talk on balance sheet normalization spoke to the probability of sterner stuff in today's Fed Minutes release.Β  To wit, the Fed's thumbnail sketch for balance sheet shrinkage would involve slowing MBS purchases to all but a trickl...
Bonds Doing Admirable Job of Digesting Harsh New Reality Yesterday's comments from Fed Vice Chair Brainard effectively prepped the bond market to receive some bad news today.Β  Trader's correctly guessed that Brainard's hawkish talk on balance sheet normalization spoke to the probability of sterner stuff in today's Fed Minutes release.Β  To wit, the Fed's thumbnail sketch for balance sheet shrinkage would involve slowing MBS purchases to all but a trickl...
MBS Live Morning: Big, Ugly Morning For Bonds (And Stocks)
MBS Live Morning: Big, Ugly Morning For Bonds (And Stocks)
MBS Live Morning: Big, Ugly Morning For Bonds (And Stocks)
MBS Live Morning: Big, Ugly Morning For Bonds (And Stocks)
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Solid Fed day and solid rally in response yesterday...Β  Now today, it's not just a complete 180Β°, but a 180Β° plus more insult to injury as yields surge to new long-term highs.Β  Money has flooded out of both sides of the market prompting discussions about "risk-parity" trades.Β  For bonds' part, there are definitely steepening trades (selling longer-term bonds more than shorter-term bonds) driving some of the weakness.Β  Corporate bond issuance isn't helping.Β  Nor is the technical break of t...
Solid Fed day and solid rally in response yesterday...Β  Now today, it's not just a complete 180Β°, but a 180Β° plus more insult to injury as yields surge to new long-term highs.Β  Money has flooded out of both sides of the market prompting discussions about "risk-parity" trades.Β  For bonds' part, there are definitely steepening trades (selling longer-term bonds more than shorter-term bonds) driving some of the weakness.Β  Corporate bond issuance isn't helping.Β  Nor is the technical break of t...
MBS Live Recap: Mixed Day For Bonds, But Same Opportunities (And Risks) Remain
MBS Live Recap: Mixed Day For Bonds, But Same Opportunities (And Risks) Remain
MBS Live Recap: Mixed Day For Bonds, But Same Opportunities (And Risks) Remain
MBS Live Recap: Mixed Day For Bonds, But Same Opportunities (And Risks) Remain
mortgagenewsdaily mortgagenewsdaily | 2 years ago
Mixed Day For Bonds, But Same Opportunities (And Risks) Remain The day began fairly well for the bond market with modest gains overnight and limited drama for most of the domestic session.Β  After the 3pm close (also month/quarter-end in this case) buyers clocked out early and MBS lost more than an eighth of a point.Β  Relative to the levels seen earlier in the week, this keeps hope alive that bonds are attempting to level-off in the bigger picture.Β  Th...
Mixed Day For Bonds, But Same Opportunities (And Risks) Remain The day began fairly well for the bond market with modest gains overnight and limited drama for most of the domestic session.Β  After the 3pm close (also month/quarter-end in this case) buyers clocked out early and MBS lost more than an eighth of a point.Β  Relative to the levels seen earlier in the week, this keeps hope alive that bonds are attempting to level-off in the bigger picture.Β  Th...
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Consolidating at Higher Yields Ahead of CPI
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Consolidating at Higher Yields Ahead of CPI
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Consolidating at Higher Yields Ahead of CPI
MBS Live Recap: Bonds Consolidating at Higher Yields Ahead of CPI
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Bonds Consolidating at Higher Yields Ahead of CPI The end of the week is marked by a battle with 3-letter abbreviations.Β  Tomorrow it will be CPI (the Consumer Price Index).Β  That will be the biggest potential market mover of the week, but its impact has yet to be revealed.Β  Today, it was the European Central Bank (ECB) with the latest policy announcement and press conference.Β  The ECB didn't do anything unexpected in terms of policy, but it significantly raised its inflation forecast, thus ...
Bonds Consolidating at Higher Yields Ahead of CPI The end of the week is marked by a battle with 3-letter abbreviations.Β  Tomorrow it will be CPI (the Consumer Price Index).Β  That will be the biggest potential market mover of the week, but its impact has yet to be revealed.Β  Today, it was the European Central Bank (ECB) with the latest policy announcement and press conference.Β  The ECB didn't do anything unexpected in terms of policy, but it significantly raised its inflation forecast, thus ...