Confirmation of What We Probably Already Knew

Abstract

In 3.56%, 10yr yields are saying they may have found a short-term floor until data becomes weak enough to coax them lower. Bonds clawed back a bit of territory after that early selling, but MBS remained roughly half a point lower by the 3pm CME close. MBS down just under half a point and 10yr yields up 6.6bps at 3.701 A bit more weakness ahead of the ISM release. MBS down almost 5/8ths and 10yr up more than 9bps at 3.729. MBS down more than 3/4ths and 10yr yields up 14.4 bps at 3.779 Generally calmer now as MBS bounce along the lows of the day, currently down 3/4ths of a point. MBS down about 3/4ths and 10yr up 13.4bps. Decent little recovery heading into the close with MBS now down "Only" half a point (they were down more than 3/4ths of a point at times today. 10yr yields are off the highs of 3.789, now down to 3.747.