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Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling

Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling

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Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling
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Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling
Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling
Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling
Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling Let's refresh our memories regarding 2022's bond trading: a sharp acceleration in inflation concerns led to a big shift from the Fed and heavy selling in the bond market and aggressive flattening of the yield curve.  Now we're tasked with making sense of more heavy selling in the bond market following a big DROP in inflation.  The steepening of the yield curve is one way to begin that process.  Today (and this week in general) it was compoun...
Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling Let's refresh our memories regarding 2022's bond trading: a sharp acceleration in inflation concerns led to a big shift from the Fed and heavy selling in the bond market and aggressive flattening of the yield curve.  Now we're tasked with making sense of more heavy selling in the bond market following a big DROP in inflation.  The steepening of the yield curve is one way to begin that process.  Today (and this week in general) it was compoun...
What's Up With Today's Big Nasty Sell-Off?
What's Up With Today's Big Nasty Sell-Off?
What's Up With Today's Big Nasty Sell-Off?
What's Up With Today's Big Nasty Sell-Off?
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
What's Up With Today's Big Nasty Sell-Off? After a stretch of 3 days where bonds could seemingly do no wrong, and 3 weeks spent generally rallying from the top to the bottom of the prevailing yield range, bonds were met with the sharpest sell-off since mid-June.  Granted, this one is a bit less traumatic since it began with the lowest yields in months, but sharp selling is sharp selling.  Scapegoats include Fed comments, rampant corporate debt issuance, and a fertile environment for an overbou...
What's Up With Today's Big Nasty Sell-Off? After a stretch of 3 days where bonds could seemingly do no wrong, and 3 weeks spent generally rallying from the top to the bottom of the prevailing yield range, bonds were met with the sharpest sell-off since mid-June.  Granted, this one is a bit less traumatic since it began with the lowest yields in months, but sharp selling is sharp selling.  Scapegoats include Fed comments, rampant corporate debt issuance, and a fertile environment for an overbou...
What's at Stake With Today's Fed Announcement?
What's at Stake With Today's Fed Announcement?
What's at Stake With Today's Fed Announcement?
What's at Stake With Today's Fed Announcement?
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
The Fed has 8 scheduled meetings per year.  4 of them include a dot plot with each member's rate hike outlook.  Those announcement days tend to produce the most volatility.  Today is not one of them, but that doesn't mean we can sleep on volatility.  Just under 2 weeks ago, the notion of a Fed pivot (a shift toward smaller rate hikes over the next few meetings and then no rate hikes for as long as possible) helped bonds recover from the highest rates in more than a decade.  So while a 0.75%...
The Fed has 8 scheduled meetings per year.  4 of them include a dot plot with each member's rate hike outlook.  Those announcement days tend to produce the most volatility.  Today is not one of them, but that doesn't mean we can sleep on volatility.  Just under 2 weeks ago, the notion of a Fed pivot (a shift toward smaller rate hikes over the next few meetings and then no rate hikes for as long as possible) helped bonds recover from the highest rates in more than a decade.  So while a 0.75%...
Making sense of the markets this week: April 10
Making sense of the markets this week: April 10
Making sense of the markets this week: April 10
Making sense of the markets this week: April 10
epicrealestate epicrealestate | 10 years ago
A quick introduction, why COW ETFs are worth looking at, the true value of $1 million and more The post Making sense of the markets this week: April 10 appeared first on MoneySense.
A quick introduction, why COW ETFs are worth looking at, the true value of $1 million and more The post Making sense of the markets this week: April 10 appeared first on MoneySense.
How Much Should We Read Into Today's Big Reversal?
How Much Should We Read Into Today's Big Reversal?
How Much Should We Read Into Today's Big Reversal?
How Much Should We Read Into Today's Big Reversal?
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
How Much Should We Read Into Today's Big Reversal? Bonds may have ended the day in negative territory, but the big story was the big reversal from even steeper losses earlier in the day.  Those, of course, followed the hotter CPI data at 8:30am and quickly pushed 10yr yields as high as 4.08.  By 130pm, they'd rallied back roughly 18bps and managed to end the day around 3.95%.  MBS lost less than an eighth of a point after being down more than an entire point.  Today's video discusses whether...
How Much Should We Read Into Today's Big Reversal? Bonds may have ended the day in negative territory, but the big story was the big reversal from even steeper losses earlier in the day.  Those, of course, followed the hotter CPI data at 8:30am and quickly pushed 10yr yields as high as 4.08.  By 130pm, they'd rallied back roughly 18bps and managed to end the day around 3.95%.  MBS lost less than an eighth of a point after being down more than an entire point.  Today's video discusses whether...
Solid Week Despite Friday's Selling, But Next One is More Important
Solid Week Despite Friday's Selling, But Next One is More Important
Solid Week Despite Friday's Selling, But Next One is More Important
Solid Week Despite Friday's Selling, But Next One is More Important
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Solid Week Despite Friday's Selling, But Next One is More Important Heading into the current week, it wasn't entirely clear what sort of value any of the scheduled events could offer in terms of shaping the broader trends in rates.  The first 4 days ended up acting as a correction to the previous week's runaway sell-off, but a correction that was kicked off by last Friday's "Fed pivot" headlines.  Friday itself ended up being a bit of an afterthought with moderate overnight losses giving way t...
Solid Week Despite Friday's Selling, But Next One is More Important Heading into the current week, it wasn't entirely clear what sort of value any of the scheduled events could offer in terms of shaping the broader trends in rates.  The first 4 days ended up acting as a correction to the previous week's runaway sell-off, but a correction that was kicked off by last Friday's "Fed pivot" headlines.  Friday itself ended up being a bit of an afterthought with moderate overnight losses giving way t...
MBS Live Morning: What Can Today's Fed Minutes Tell Us That We Don't Already Know?
MBS Live Morning: What Can Today's Fed Minutes Tell Us That We Don't Already Know?
MBS Live Morning: What Can Today's Fed Minutes Tell Us That We Don't Already Know?
MBS Live Morning: What Can Today's Fed Minutes Tell Us That We Don't Already Know?
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
In the run up to the most recent Fed announcement, the 50bp rate hike was a foregone conclusion.  There was some uncertainty about how the Fed would announce balance sheet normalization, but there too, they stuck to the script.  With normalization underway and ample Fed comments in the past 2 weeks on the certainty of several 50bp rate hikes, what's left to learn from the Minutes?  In this case, it's not so much about uncovering new concepts as it is about seeing how broad the consensus is. ...
In the run up to the most recent Fed announcement, the 50bp rate hike was a foregone conclusion.  There was some uncertainty about how the Fed would announce balance sheet normalization, but there too, they stuck to the script.  With normalization underway and ample Fed comments in the past 2 weeks on the certainty of several 50bp rate hikes, what's left to learn from the Minutes?  In this case, it's not so much about uncovering new concepts as it is about seeing how broad the consensus is. ...
MBS Live Recap: Is Today's Bounce Enough to Reinforce the Range?
MBS Live Recap: Is Today's Bounce Enough to Reinforce the Range?
MBS Live Recap: Is Today's Bounce Enough to Reinforce the Range?
MBS Live Recap: Is Today's Bounce Enough to Reinforce the Range?
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Is Today's Bounce Enough to Reinforce the Range? After 5 straight trading days of weakness and 3 stubborn days failing to break below the most recent rate floor, bonds finally managed to put in a solid performance.  To recap, that's one (1) good day versus 8 consecutive days that were less than good.  All of the above fits the narrative of broader sideways range-finding but the big question is whether or not today's single day of gains is enough to suggest that bonds are at their near-term cei...
Is Today's Bounce Enough to Reinforce the Range? After 5 straight trading days of weakness and 3 stubborn days failing to break below the most recent rate floor, bonds finally managed to put in a solid performance.  To recap, that's one (1) good day versus 8 consecutive days that were less than good.  All of the above fits the narrative of broader sideways range-finding but the big question is whether or not today's single day of gains is enough to suggest that bonds are at their near-term cei...
MBS Live Recap: What Does Today's Rally Mean For The Bigger Picture?
MBS Live Recap: What Does Today's Rally Mean For The Bigger Picture?
MBS Live Recap: What Does Today's Rally Mean For The Bigger Picture?
MBS Live Recap: What Does Today's Rally Mean For The Bigger Picture?
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
What Does Today's Rally Mean For The Bigger Picture? Bonds began the day in flat to slightly weaker territory, but that didn't last long.  A gigantic wave of selling in equities markets grew to tsunami-like proportions as the day progressed.  Unlike many other examples of days where stocks fall 3-4% by noon, there was no major attempt to recover before the 4pm NYSE close.  It was very clear throughout the day that the progressively larger ...
What Does Today's Rally Mean For The Bigger Picture? Bonds began the day in flat to slightly weaker territory, but that didn't last long.  A gigantic wave of selling in equities markets grew to tsunami-like proportions as the day progressed.  Unlike many other examples of days where stocks fall 3-4% by noon, there was no major attempt to recover before the 4pm NYSE close.  It was very clear throughout the day that the progressively larger ...
Even When It's Good, It's Bad
Even When It's Good, It's Bad
Even When It's Good, It's Bad
Even When It's Good, It's Bad
News & media website News & media website | 1 year ago
Even When It's Good, It's Bad Bonds had a good overnight session with fairly steady gains in both Asia and Europe.  The morning was shaping up nicely and, up until 9:30am, it looked like bonds might squeak by with a bit of a victory on the day.  But as is so often the case recently, even the good days seem to find a way of turning bad.  Today was no exception.  A big reversal in UK trading got the party started for sellers, with the Consumer Sentiment data adding fuel to the fire.  Fed spe...
Even When It's Good, It's Bad Bonds had a good overnight session with fairly steady gains in both Asia and Europe.  The morning was shaping up nicely and, up until 9:30am, it looked like bonds might squeak by with a bit of a victory on the day.  But as is so often the case recently, even the good days seem to find a way of turning bad.  Today was no exception.  A big reversal in UK trading got the party started for sellers, with the Consumer Sentiment data adding fuel to the fire.  Fed spe...