No One’s Been Thinking About What Happens When Things Go Down

A report from Vice Magazine. “Brent Rogol, an agent in New York, was recently selling an apartment to a buyer who was heavily invested in tech stocks, which dropped dramatically in value over the course of negotiations. ‘It really reduced her buying power, and we were only able to get so much,’ Rogol said. ‘We ended up settling with this person because she was the only buyer, and she just couldn’t go any higher because of her portfolio.’ Rogol and his client were nervous until the day the transaction closed that a further market drop would kill the purchase, he said.”

“Joanna Rose, a San Francisco agent who primarily works with sellers, said ‘the biggest thing’ affecting the San Francisco market is the decline in share prices for tech companies.’ Talk of a potential recession has only added to the sense of fear, and Rose is starting to notice it start her business recently. ‘It’s pretty sudden,’ she said. Rose has had to speak with her clients repeatedly to help them understand the new reality, and asking prices have recently started to drop, adding that half of active listings had reduced their asking price in the seven days before she spoke with Motherboard.”

“‘The climate’s changed,’ said Danny Hertzberg, another luxury real estate agent in Miami. Declining valuations of tech companies has had a ‘significant’ psychological effect on the higher end of the market as people attempt to readjust to a less secure reality, Hertzberg said. ‘We’re seeing less bidding wars,’ he said. ‘Sellers are a little bit more flexible.'”

The New York Times. “Last year, Bolt Financial, a payments startup, began a new program for its employees. They owned stock options in the company, some worth millions of dollars on paper, but could not touch that money until Bolt sold or went public. So Bolt began providing them with loans — some reaching hundreds of thousands of dollars — against the value of their stock.”

“Ted Wang, a former startup lawyer and an investor, said he got a fresh round of calls about the loans anytime the market overheated and always felt obligated to explain the risks. ‘I’ve seen this go wrong, bad wrong,’ he wrote.”

“In May, Bolt laid off 200 workers. That set off a 90-day period for those who had taken out the loans to pay the money back. In situations like Bolt’s, the loans may be difficult to repay on short notice. ‘No one’s been thinking about what happens when things go down,’ said Rick Heitzmann, an investor at FirstMark Capital. ‘Everyone’s only thinking about the upside.'”

From Fox Business. “Bryan Jaeger, owner of Jaeger Lumber & Supply Co. in New Jersey, told FOX Business that spec builders, who often take on projects that are speculative in nature, ‘have already started to pull back and they were pulling back in March when prices were peaking.’ ‘They were starting to take on more remodeling projects because once you talk about raising the interest rates, mortgage rates going up, that just changes the market,’ he continued. ‘So out of uncertainty, they’ve pulled back into remodeling.'”

The Herald Tribune in Florida. “‘Our area, Sarasota-Bradenton, and even the Tampa Bay region really got on the national radar as more of a primary destination that had vacation qualities,’ said Laura Cole, a senior vice president at Lakewood Ranch Communities LLC. ‘During that period of time builders were selling and selling and selling. In June of last year was when sales started to turn back to pre-pandemic levels,’ Cole continued. Builders put on the brakes mid last year and said, ‘We need to deliver homes and need to do it reliably.'”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Arlington-based D.R. Horton saw its sales decrease 7% year over year nationwide to 16,693 homes in its third fiscal quarter that ended June 30, the company reported Thursday. Its cancellation rate for sales orders was 24% compared with 17% a year ago, as more buyers pulled out of deals. ‘So far, builders have been able to backfill most of the cancellations,’ said Bryan Glasshagel, a senior vice president for Zonda, but he added that some are having to lower prices in some cases. Many builders, like D.R. Horton, are offering to buy down or lock in mortgage rates.”

The Dallas Business Journal. “North Texas homebuilders are seeing an alarming surge in cancellations of contracts on new homes, triggering a sharp drop in sales and pending sales last month, and a record rate of increase in new home listings in the Multiple Listing Service. The three-month moving average of active listings in the North Texas Real Estate Information Systems jumped from 933 in April to 2,915 in June – an increase of more than 200% in 90 days, according to an analysis of NTREIS data by Dallas-based HomesUSA.com.”

“DFW pending sales dropped too, another indicator of buyer cancelations. In June, pending sales were 1,593 vs. 1,663 in May.The other three major new home markets in Texas – Houston, Austin and San Antonio – also reported a drop in pending sales in June. ‘We are in the busiest month of the year,’ said Danny Perez, managing director of Rockwall-based M&D Real Estate. ‘We should be seeing increasing sales.'”

The Colorado Sun. “Putting your house up for sale is stressful enough. Now, sellers find themselves having to cut their listing price after the home is already on the market. Two to three times more sellers in Denver, Fort Collins and Colorado Springs reconsidered their list prices and then lowered them in June compared to a year ago, according to Zillow. The share of listings with a price cut in June for Denver was 18.3%. In Colorado Springs, prices were cut on 18% of listings. In Fort Collins, they accounted for 9.5%, a threefold increase from June 2021.”

“There were even price cuts last year as the housing price growth in Colorado seemed unstoppable. The number of sellers cutting their list price in June is now in double digits in the U.S. as well at 14.5%. It’s normal because homeowners who cut their listing price often ‘overprice and don’t realize (declining) market value,’ Zillow economist Nicole Bachaud said.”

From Bloomberg on Connecticut. “The Greenwich housing market may have experienced the last gasps of its pandemic frenzy in the second quarter as record-setting sales prices gave way to signs of a slowdown. ‘Greenwich is returning to Earth,’ said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel. ‘The intensity is not what it was.'”

KSBY on California. “As May turned into June, realtors say a shift in the housing market took place. Residential areas like San Luis Obispo and Templeton are still seeing a hot market, but areas where people are often looking to buy a second home, out toward the coast, are feeling the cooldown. ‘With a lot of things going on out there in the economic and political sphere, it definitely flicked a switch,’ said Jay Chiasson, Navigators Real Estate Captain and Owner. ‘The second home market is probably seeing the bigger slowdown, the bigger price reductions,’ Chiasson said.”

“There is an increase in inventory. Broker Associate Hal Sweasey says sales have decreased significantly since this time last year. ‘Sales are down about 30 percent year over year,’ he said. Since last month, some properties on the Central Coast have significantly reduced their prices. ‘There are definitely more price reductions so if somebody started a little on the high side they would have to adjust their price, so we’ve seen that month over month certainly,’ Sweasey said.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “85 Braeside Rd., Toronto. When listed in February at slightly under $2.4-million, this three-bedroom house languished for over a month without an offer. A new agent relisted the house in with an asking price under $2-miilion and a fresh appearance. Almost 100 visitors passed through the property over six days and two bids emerged, the better of which added $72,000 to the asking price.”

“‘Typically, houses in Lawrence Park North fly off the shelf and don’t make it to the second day on market. Now, we’re seeing them languishing after 10 to 20 days,’ Belinda Lelli said. ‘What worked was pricing it close to what we wanted, and under a certain price point, which for that area, is an affordable house.'”

From Lancs Live in the UK. “A stalled building site blighting a Lancashire town will remain untouched throughout the summer. A housing development on the site of the former Burscough FC stadium ground to a halt when contractor Crossfield Living went bust and neighbours have become frustrated over the halted development. Addressing Cllr Yvonne Gagen on behalf of the resident, he said: ‘Could the council leader please advise when something is going to be done about the now semi-derelict building site at Bobby Langton Way, Burscoug? The development company went bust last winter and the half-finished houses are now slowly decaying and becoming an eyesore.'”

The South China Morning Post. “Embattled property developer China Evergrande Group’s CEO and financial chief have been forced out amid an internal inquiry into 13.4 billion yuan (US$1.9 billion) in deposits used as security guarantees for bank loans, which were later seized by creditors. Evergrande’s preliminary investigation determined that about 13.4 billion yuan in deposits from its property management unit, Evergrande Property Services, had been used as guarantees for loans taken out by third parties and the loan proceeds were then diverted back to Evergrande for general operations.”

“Evergrande, the mainland’s second-largest developer by sales, said on Friday that Xia, Chief Financial Officer Pan Darong, and an executive of its Hengda Real Estate Group subsidiary were all asked to resign after the internal inquiry uncovered their involvement in the loan arrangement. The company said a committee conducting the investigation would seek to conclude the inquiry as soon as possible and issue a report.”

“The departure of Evergrande’s top executives is the latest challenge for the company founded by Hui Ka-yan, once the wealthiest man in China. Evergrande in December failed to pay the interest on US$645 million and US$590 million of junk bonds, even after a grace period, triggering a cross-default on its other borrowings.

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